Mallorca
Las Palmas
Mallorca – Las Palmas
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.52 – 0.97
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Mallorca at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.52 goals for Mallorca and 0.97 for Las Palmas. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, Mallorca took 8 points and Las Palmas 5 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Mallorca, 1 draw, 0 wins for Las Palmas. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mallorca | 1.54 | 60 % | -21.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | +13.0 % |
| 2Las Palmas | 5.50 | 17 % | +16.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Mallorca
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Las Palmas
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Mallorca
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Las Palmas
- Mallorca3-1Las Palmas
- Las Palmas2-3Mallorca
- Mallorca1-0Las Palmas
- Las Palmas1-1Mallorca
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mallorca – Las Palmas?
Our model gives 1 · Mallorca a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mallorca win 51 %, draw 28 %, Las Palmas win 21 %.
What is the most likely score for Mallorca – Las Palmas?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.