Besiktas
Kocaelispor
Besiktas – Kocaelispor
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 73 %
- Most likely score
- 2-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.23 – 0.74
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Besiktas at home (73 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.23 goals for Besiktas and 0.74 for Kocaelispor. Bookmakers say the same thing: 73 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Besiktas took 12 points and Kocaelispor 12 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Besiktas, 0 draws, 0 wins for Kocaelispor. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Besiktas | 1.27 | 73 % | -7.8 % |
| XDraw | 5.50 | 17 % | -0.4 % |
| 2Kocaelispor | 9.50 | 10 % | -11.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Besiktas
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Kocaelispor
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Besiktas
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Kocaelispor
- Kocaelispor0-1Besiktas
- Besiktas3-1Kocaelispor
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Besiktas – Kocaelispor?
Our model gives 1 · Besiktas a 73 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Besiktas win 73 %, draw 18 %, Kocaelispor win 9 %.
What is the most likely score for Besiktas – Kocaelispor?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.