SC Freiburg
Schalke 04
SC Freiburg – Schalke 04
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 65 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.30 – 1.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards SC Freiburg at home (65 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.30 goals for SC Freiburg and 1.06 for Schalke 04. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 58 %. Over their last five matches, SC Freiburg took 13 points and Schalke 04 8 points. Over 2.5 goals: 65 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1SC Freiburg | 1.61 | 58 % | +4.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.92 | 24 % | -14.5 % |
| 2Schalke 04 | 5.25 | 18 % | -29.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
SC Freiburg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Schalke 04
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win SC Freiburg – Schalke 04?
Our model gives 1 · SC Freiburg a 65 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: SC Freiburg win 65 %, draw 22 %, Schalke 04 win 13 %.
What is the most likely score for SC Freiburg – Schalke 04?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.