Liverpool
Manchester City
Liverpool – Manchester City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 53 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.12 – 1.76
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Manchester City away from home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.12 goals for Liverpool and 1.76 for Manchester City. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 42 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.27, the predicted outcome carries +20.7 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Liverpool took 13 points and Manchester City 15 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Liverpool, 0 draws, 3 wins for Manchester City. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Liverpool | 2.95 | 32 % | -31.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.67 | 26 % | -13.3 % |
| 2Manchester City | 2.27 |
Form and statistics
Liverpool
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Manchester City
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Liverpool
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Manchester City
- Manchester City4-0Liverpool
- Liverpool1-2Manchester City
- Manchester City3-0Liverpool
- Manchester City0-2Liverpool
- Liverpool2-0Manchester City
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Liverpool – Manchester City?
Our model gives 2 · Manchester City a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Liverpool win 23 %, draw 24 %, Manchester City win 53 %.
What is the most likely score for Liverpool – Manchester City?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.