Abha
Al Faisaly
Abha – Al Faisaly
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 36 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.25 – 1.32
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Al Faisaly away from home (36 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.25 goals for Abha and 1.32 for Al Faisaly. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 28 %. Over their last five matches, Abha took 2 points and Al Faisaly 3 points. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Abha | 2.05 | 45 % | -30.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | +4.5 % |
| 2Al Faisaly | 3.35 | 28 % | +19.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Abha
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Al Faisaly
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Abha – Al Faisaly?
Our model gives 2 · Al Faisaly a 36 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Abha win 34 %, draw 30 %, Al Faisaly win 36 %.
What is the most likely score for Abha – Al Faisaly?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.