Padova
Carrarese
Padova – Carrarese
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.30 – 1.05
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Padova at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.30 goals for Padova and 1.05 for Carrarese. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 49 %. Over their last five matches, Padova took 7 points and Carrarese 1 point. In recent meetings: 1 win for Padova, 1 draw, 0 wins for Carrarese. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Padova | 1.90 | 49 % | -20.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | +1.9 % |
| 2Carrarese | 4.00 | 23 % | +11.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Padova
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Carrarese
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Padova
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Carrarese
- Padova1-0Carrarese
- Carrarese0-0Padova
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Padova – Carrarese?
Our model gives 1 · Padova a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Padova win 42 %, draw 30 %, Carrarese win 28 %.
What is the most likely score for Padova – Carrarese?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.