Excelsior
FC Groningen
Excelsior – FC Groningen
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 2-18 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.50 – 1.49
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Excelsior at home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.50 goals for Excelsior and 1.49 for FC Groningen. Bookmakers say the same thing: 37 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Excelsior took 8 points and FC Groningen 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Excelsior, 0 draws, 2 wins for FC Groningen. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Excelsior | 2.55 | 37 % | -6.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -2.1 % |
| 2FC Groningen | 2.50 | 37 % | -9.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Excelsior
- Last 5 matches
- At home
FC Groningen
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Excelsior
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- FC Groningen
- FC Groningen2-3Excelsior
- Excelsior0-2FC Groningen
- Excelsior0-2FC Groningen
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Excelsior – FC Groningen?
Our model gives 1 · Excelsior a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Excelsior win 37 %, draw 27 %, FC Groningen win 36 %.
What is the most likely score for Excelsior – FC Groningen?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 8 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.