Real Sociedad
Deportivo
Real Sociedad – Deportivo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.47 – 1.17
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Real Sociedad at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.47 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.17 for Deportivo. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 59 %. Over their last five matches, Real Sociedad took 7 points and Deportivo 8 points. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Sociedad | 1.60 | 59 % | -28.1 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | +6.3 % |
| 2Deportivo | 5.50 | 17 % | +60.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Real Sociedad
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Deportivo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Real Sociedad – Deportivo?
Our model gives 1 · Real Sociedad a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Real Sociedad win 45 %, draw 26 %, Deportivo win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Real Sociedad – Deportivo?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.