Catanzaro
Mantova
Catanzaro – Mantova
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.45 – 1.17
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Catanzaro at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.45 goals for Catanzaro and 1.17 for Mantova. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Catanzaro took 3 points and Mantova 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Catanzaro, 2 draws, 0 wins for Mantova. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Catanzaro | 2.30 | 40 % | +0.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 27 % | -4.1 % |
| 2Mantova | 2.90 | 32 % | -19.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Catanzaro
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Mantova
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Catanzaro
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Mantova
- Catanzaro2-0Mantova
- Mantova1-3Catanzaro
- Mantova0-0Catanzaro
- Catanzaro2-2Mantova
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Catanzaro – Mantova?
Our model gives 1 · Catanzaro a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Catanzaro win 44 %, draw 28 %, Mantova win 28 %.
What is the most likely score for Catanzaro – Mantova?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.