Fredrikstad Stadion
Fredrikstad
Tromso
Fredrikstad – Tromso
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 2-18 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.47 – 1.44
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Fredrikstad at home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.47 goals for Fredrikstad and 1.44 for Tromso. Bookmakers say the same thing: 34 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Fredrikstad took 8 points and Tromso 4 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Fredrikstad, 2 draws, 3 wins for Tromso. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fredrikstad | 2.75 | 34 % | +2.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -8.9 % |
| 2Tromso | 2.45 | 38 % | -11.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Fredrikstad
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Tromso
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Fredrikstad
- 2 draws
- 3 wins
- Tromso
- Tromso4-0Fredrikstad
- Tromso0-0Fredrikstad
- Fredrikstad0-1Tromso
- Tromso3-0Fredrikstad
- Fredrikstad0-0Tromso
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fredrikstad – Tromso?
Our model gives 1 · Fredrikstad a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fredrikstad win 37 %, draw 27 %, Tromso win 36 %.
What is the most likely score for Fredrikstad – Tromso?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 8 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.