Hammarby IF
Djurgården
Hammarby IF – Djurgården
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.74 – 1.22
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Hammarby IF at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.74 goals for Hammarby IF and 1.22 for Djurgården. Bookmakers say the same thing: 54 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Hammarby IF took 10 points and Djurgården 12 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Hammarby IF, 2 draws, 0 wins for Djurgården. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hammarby IF | 1.74 | 54 % | -14.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | +2.5 % |
| 2Djurgården | 3.95 | 24 % | +1.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Hammarby IF
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Djurgården
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Hammarby IF
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Djurgården
- Djurgården1-1Hammarby IF
- Djurgården3-3Hammarby IF
- Hammarby IF2-0Djurgården
- Hammarby IF2-0Djurgården
- Djurgården0-3Hammarby IF
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Hammarby IF – Djurgården?
Our model gives 1 · Hammarby IF a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Hammarby IF win 49 %, draw 25 %, Djurgården win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Hammarby IF – Djurgården?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.