FC Andorra
Castellón
FC Andorra – Castellón
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.16 – 1.42
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Castellón away from home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.16 goals for FC Andorra and 1.42 for Castellón. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, FC Andorra took 4 points and Castellón 13 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for FC Andorra, 0 draws, 2 wins for Castellón. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Andorra | 3.00 | 31 % | -16.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -1.2 % |
| 2Castellón | 2.25 | 42 % | -2.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
FC Andorra
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Castellón
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- FC Andorra
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Castellón
- Castellón2-0FC Andorra
- FC Andorra1-3Castellón
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Andorra – Castellón?
Our model gives 2 · Castellón a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Andorra win 28 %, draw 29 %, Castellón win 43 %.
What is the most likely score for FC Andorra – Castellón?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.