VfL Bochum
Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum – Arminia Bielefeld
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.52 – 1.33
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards VfL Bochum at home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.52 goals for VfL Bochum and 1.33 for Arminia Bielefeld. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, VfL Bochum took 7 points and Arminia Bielefeld 3 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for VfL Bochum, 2 draws, 0 wins for Arminia Bielefeld. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1VfL Bochum | 2.25 | 41 % | -3.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -5.4 % |
| 2Arminia Bielefeld | 2.90 | 32 % | -12.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
VfL Bochum
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Arminia Bielefeld
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- VfL Bochum
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Arminia Bielefeld
- Arminia Bielefeld1-1VfL Bochum
- VfL Bochum1-0Arminia Bielefeld
- Arminia Bielefeld2-2VfL Bochum
Frequently asked questions
Who will win VfL Bochum – Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model gives 1 · VfL Bochum a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: VfL Bochum win 43 %, draw 27 %, Arminia Bielefeld win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for VfL Bochum – Arminia Bielefeld?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.