St. Pauli
Karlsruher SC
St. Pauli – Karlsruher SC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.48 – 1.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards St. Pauli at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.48 goals for St. Pauli and 1.27 for Karlsruher SC. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 55 %. Over their last five matches, St. Pauli took 5 points and Karlsruher SC 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for St. Pauli, 1 draw, 0 wins for Karlsruher SC. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1St. Pauli | 1.71 | 55 % | -25.1 % |
| XDraw | 4.20 | 22 % | +12.4 % |
| 2Karlsruher SC | 4.00 | 23 % | +17.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
St. Pauli
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Karlsruher SC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- St. Pauli
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Karlsruher SC
- St. Pauli2-1Karlsruher SC
- St. Pauli1-1Karlsruher SC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win St. Pauli – Karlsruher SC?
Our model gives 1 · St. Pauli a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: St. Pauli win 44 %, draw 27 %, Karlsruher SC win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for St. Pauli – Karlsruher SC?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.