Motherwell
Celtic
Motherwell – Celtic
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 53 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.08 – 1.97
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Celtic away from home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.08 goals for Motherwell and 1.97 for Celtic. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 59 %. Over their last five matches, Motherwell took 4 points and Celtic 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Motherwell, 0 draws, 4 wins for Celtic. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Motherwell | 4.63 | 20 % | +2.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.50 | 21 % | +10.2 % |
| 2Celtic | 1.57 | 59 % | -16.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Motherwell
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Celtic
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Motherwell
- 0 draws
- 4 wins
- Celtic
- Motherwell2-3Celtic
- Celtic3-1Motherwell
- Motherwell2-0Celtic
- Celtic3-2Motherwell
- Motherwell1-3Celtic
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Motherwell – Celtic?
Our model gives 2 · Celtic a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Motherwell win 22 %, draw 24 %, Celtic win 53 %.
What is the most likely score for Motherwell – Celtic?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.