Southampton
Portsmouth
Southampton – Portsmouth
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 67 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.16 – 0.92
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Southampton at home (67 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.16 goals for Southampton and 0.92 for Portsmouth. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, Southampton took 8 points and Portsmouth 5 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Southampton, 2 draws, 0 wins for Portsmouth. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Southampton | 1.57 | 60 % | +4.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.15 | 23 % | -24.3 % |
| 2Portsmouth | 5.38 | 17 % | -19.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Southampton
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Portsmouth
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Southampton
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Portsmouth
- Portsmouth1-1Southampton
- Southampton0-0Portsmouth
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Southampton – Portsmouth?
Our model gives 1 · Southampton a 67 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Southampton win 67 %, draw 18 %, Portsmouth win 15 %.
What is the most likely score for Southampton – Portsmouth?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.