FC Utrecht
Willem II
FC Utrecht – Willem II
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 66 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.26 – 1.11
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards FC Utrecht at home (66 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.26 goals for FC Utrecht and 1.11 for Willem II. Bookmakers say the same thing: 63 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, FC Utrecht took 5 points and Willem II 2 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for FC Utrecht, 0 draws, 0 wins for Willem II. Over 2.5 goals: 65 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Utrecht | 1.48 | 63 % | -2.4 % |
| XDraw | 4.60 | 20 % | -9.6 % |
| 2Willem II | 5.50 | 17 % | -20.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
FC Utrecht
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Willem II
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- FC Utrecht
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Willem II
- Willem II2-3FC Utrecht
- FC Utrecht3-2Willem II
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Utrecht – Willem II?
Our model gives 1 · FC Utrecht a 66 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Utrecht win 66 %, draw 20 %, Willem II win 14 %.
What is the most likely score for FC Utrecht – Willem II?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.