Atlas
Guadalajara
Atlas – Guadalajara
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.16 – 1.61
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Guadalajara away from home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.16 goals for Atlas and 1.61 for Guadalajara. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 43 %. Over their last five matches, Atlas took 5 points and Guadalajara 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Atlas, 1 draw, 2 wins for Guadalajara. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlas | 3.15 | 30 % | -16.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -13.4 % |
| 2Guadalajara | 2.20 | 43 % | +5.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Atlas
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Guadalajara
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Atlas
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Guadalajara
- Atlas1-2Guadalajara
- Guadalajara4-1Atlas
- Atlas1-1Guadalajara
- Guadalajara1-2Atlas
- Guadalajara2-3Atlas
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlas – Guadalajara?
Our model gives 2 · Guadalajara a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlas win 26 %, draw 25 %, Guadalajara win 48 %.
What is the most likely score for Atlas – Guadalajara?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.