São Paulo
Vitória
São Paulo – Vitória
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 55 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.62 – 0.91
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards São Paulo at home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.62 goals for São Paulo and 0.91 for Vitória. Bookmakers say the same thing: 58 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, São Paulo took 4 points and Vitória 7 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for São Paulo, 0 draws, 2 wins for Vitória. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1São Paulo | 1.62 | 58 % | -10.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | -3.4 % |
| 2Vitória | 5.25 | 18 % | +0.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
São Paulo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Vitória
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- São Paulo
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Vitória
- Vitória2-0São Paulo
- Vitória1-0São Paulo
- São Paulo2-0Vitória
- São Paulo2-1Vitória
- Vitória1-3São Paulo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win São Paulo – Vitória?
Our model gives 1 · São Paulo a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: São Paulo win 55 %, draw 25 %, Vitória win 19 %.
What is the most likely score for São Paulo – Vitória?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.