Tigre
Banfield
Tigre – Banfield
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 55 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.53 – 0.84
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42 %
- Both teams to score
- 45 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Tigre at home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.53 goals for Tigre and 0.84 for Banfield. Bookmakers say the same thing: 54 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Tigre took 1 point and Banfield 3 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Tigre, 0 draws, 2 wins for Banfield. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tigre | 1.71 | 54 % | -6.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -7.6 % |
| 2Banfield | 5.00 | 19 % | -7.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Tigre
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Banfield
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Tigre
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Banfield
- Banfield1-0Tigre
- Banfield1-0Tigre
- Tigre1-0Banfield
- Banfield0-1Tigre
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Tigre – Banfield?
Our model gives 1 · Tigre a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Tigre win 55 %, draw 27 %, Banfield win 19 %.
What is the most likely score for Tigre – Banfield?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.