Tigres UANL
Toluca
Tigres UANL – Toluca
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.37 – 1.54
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Toluca away from home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.37 goals for Tigres UANL and 1.54 for Toluca. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Tigres UANL took 6 points and Toluca 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Tigres UANL, 2 draws, 1 win for Toluca. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tigres UANL | 3.00 | 31 % | +4.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 27 % | -7.3 % |
| 2Toluca | 2.25 | 42 % | -12.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Tigres UANL
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Toluca
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Tigres UANL
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Toluca
- Toluca1-1Tigres UANL
- Tigres UANL0-0Toluca
- Toluca2-1Tigres UANL
- Tigres UANL1-0Toluca
- Toluca3-4Tigres UANL
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Tigres UANL – Toluca?
Our model gives 2 · Toluca a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Tigres UANL win 35 %, draw 26 %, Toluca win 39 %.
What is the most likely score for Tigres UANL – Toluca?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.