Ajax Amsterdam
NEC Nijmegen
Ajax Amsterdam – NEC Nijmegen
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 67 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.64 – 1.10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Ajax Amsterdam at home (67 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.64 goals for Ajax Amsterdam and 1.10 for NEC Nijmegen. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 72 %. Over their last five matches, Ajax Amsterdam took 10 points and NEC Nijmegen 2 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Ajax Amsterdam, 3 draws, 1 win for NEC Nijmegen. Over 2.5 goals: 72 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ajax Amsterdam | 1.30 | 72 % | -13.2 % |
| XDraw | 6.00 | 16 % | +8.1 % |
| 2NEC Nijmegen | 7.50 | 12 % | +14.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Ajax Amsterdam
- Last 5 matches
- At home
NEC Nijmegen
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Ajax Amsterdam
- 3 draws
- 1 win
- NEC Nijmegen
- Ajax Amsterdam1-1NEC Nijmegen
- NEC Nijmegen2-2Ajax Amsterdam
- Ajax Amsterdam0-3NEC Nijmegen
- NEC Nijmegen1-2Ajax Amsterdam
- Ajax Amsterdam2-2NEC Nijmegen
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Ajax Amsterdam – NEC Nijmegen?
Our model gives 1 · Ajax Amsterdam a 67 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ajax Amsterdam win 67 %, draw 18 %, NEC Nijmegen win 15 %.
What is the most likely score for Ajax Amsterdam – NEC Nijmegen?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.