Real Madrid
Villarreal
Real Madrid – Villarreal
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 64 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.08 – 1.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Real Madrid at home (64 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.08 goals for Real Madrid and 1.12 for Villarreal. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 69 %. Over their last five matches, Real Madrid took 9 points and Villarreal 6 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Real Madrid, 1 draw, 0 wins for Villarreal. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Madrid | 1.37 | 69 % | -12.7 % |
| XDraw | 5.75 | 16 % | +12.6 % |
| 2Villarreal | 6.50 | 15 % | +8.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Real Madrid
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Villarreal
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Real Madrid
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Villarreal
- Villarreal0-2Real Madrid
- Real Madrid3-1Villarreal
- Villarreal1-2Real Madrid
- Real Madrid2-0Villarreal
- Villarreal4-4Real Madrid
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Real Madrid – Villarreal?
Our model gives 1 · Real Madrid a 64 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Real Madrid win 64 %, draw 20 %, Villarreal win 17 %.
What is the most likely score for Real Madrid – Villarreal?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.