Paris Saint-Germain
Le Mans
Paris Saint-Germain – Le Mans
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 79 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.75 – 0.78
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Paris Saint-Germain at home (79 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.75 goals for Paris Saint-Germain and 0.78 for Le Mans. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 88 %. Over their last five matches, Paris Saint-Germain took 10 points and Le Mans 6 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Paris Saint-Germain, 0 draws, 0 wins for Le Mans. Over 2.5 goals: 69 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paris Saint-Germain | 1.08 | 88 % | -14.4 % |
| XDraw | 13.00 | 7 % | +71.6 % |
| 2Le Mans | 22.00 | 4 % | +69.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Paris Saint-Germain
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Le Mans
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Paris Saint-Germain
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Le Mans
- Le Mans0-2Paris Saint-Germain
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Paris Saint-Germain – Le Mans?
Our model gives 1 · Paris Saint-Germain a 79 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Paris Saint-Germain win 79 %, draw 13 %, Le Mans win 8 %.
What is the most likely score for Paris Saint-Germain – Le Mans?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.