Lorient
Paris FC
Lorient – Paris FC
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.16 – 1.42
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Paris FC away from home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.16 goals for Lorient and 1.42 for Paris FC. Bookmakers say the same thing: 43 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Lorient took 5 points and Paris FC 11 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Lorient, 1 draw, 2 wins for Paris FC. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lorient | 3.25 | 29 % | -1.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.38 | 28 % | -1.0 % |
| 2Paris FC | 2.23 | 43 % | -10.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Lorient
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Paris FC
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Lorient
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Paris FC
- Lorient1-1Paris FC
- Lorient2-0Paris FC
- Paris FC2-0Lorient
- Paris FC3-2Lorient
- Lorient2-0Paris FC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lorient – Paris FC?
Our model gives 2 · Paris FC a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lorient win 30 %, draw 29 %, Paris FC win 40 %.
What is the most likely score for Lorient – Paris FC?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.