Napoli
Frosinone
Napoli – Frosinone
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.45 – 1.13
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Napoli at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.45 goals for Napoli and 1.13 for Frosinone. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 66 %. Over their last five matches, Napoli took 4 points and Frosinone 11 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Napoli, 1 draw, 1 win for Frosinone. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Napoli | 1.44 | 66 % | -30.7 % |
| XDraw | 4.72 | 20 % | +17.6 % |
| 2Frosinone | 6.50 | 14 % | +74.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Napoli
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Frosinone
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Napoli
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Frosinone
- Napoli2-2Frosinone
- Napoli0-4Frosinone
- Frosinone1-3Napoli
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Napoli – Frosinone?
Our model gives 1 · Napoli a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Napoli win 48 %, draw 25 %, Frosinone win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Napoli – Frosinone?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.