Al Hilal
Al Ittihad
Al Hilal – Al Ittihad
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 67 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.26 – 1.05
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Al Hilal at home (67 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.26 goals for Al Hilal and 1.05 for Al Ittihad. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 72 %. Over their last five matches, Al Hilal took 12 points and Al Ittihad 11 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Al Hilal, 2 draws, 1 win for Al Ittihad. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Hilal | 1.28 | 72 % | -14.2 % |
| XDraw | 6.00 | 15 % | +11.1 % |
| 2Al Ittihad | 7.50 | 12 % | +8.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Al Hilal
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Al Ittihad
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Al Hilal
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Al Ittihad
- Al Hilal1-1Al Ittihad
- Al Ittihad0-2Al Hilal
- Al Ittihad4-1Al Hilal
- Al Hilal2-2Al Ittihad
- Al Hilal3-1Al Ittihad
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Al Hilal – Al Ittihad?
Our model gives 1 · Al Hilal a 67 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Al Hilal win 67 %, draw 19 %, Al Ittihad win 14 %.
What is the most likely score for Al Hilal – Al Ittihad?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.