Saint-Étienne
Rodez Aveyron
Saint-Étienne – Rodez Aveyron
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 59 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.97 – 1.04
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Saint-Étienne at home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.97 goals for Saint-Étienne and 1.04 for Rodez Aveyron. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 67 %. Over their last five matches, Saint-Étienne took 10 points and Rodez Aveyron 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Saint-Étienne, 1 draw, 2 wins for Rodez Aveyron. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Saint-Étienne | 1.40 | 67 % | -17.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.90 | 19 % | +13.2 % |
| 2Rodez Aveyron | 6.50 | 14 % | +14.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Saint-Étienne
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Rodez Aveyron
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Saint-Étienne
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Rodez Aveyron
- Rodez Aveyron2-1Saint-Étienne
- Saint-Étienne4-0Rodez Aveyron
- Saint-Étienne1-1Rodez Aveyron
- Rodez Aveyron2-1Saint-Étienne
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Saint-Étienne – Rodez Aveyron?
Our model gives 1 · Saint-Étienne a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Saint-Étienne win 59 %, draw 23 %, Rodez Aveyron win 18 %.
What is the most likely score for Saint-Étienne – Rodez Aveyron?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.