Austria Vienna
SK Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna – SK Sturm Graz
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 0-112 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.01 – 1.45
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards SK Sturm Graz away from home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.01 goals for Austria Vienna and 1.45 for SK Sturm Graz. Bookmakers say the same thing: 44 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Austria Vienna took 5 points and SK Sturm Graz 5 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Austria Vienna, 1 draw, 1 win for SK Sturm Graz. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Austria Vienna | 3.20 | 29 % | -18.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | +5.3 % |
| 2SK Sturm Graz | 2.10 | 44 % | -5.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Austria Vienna
- Last 5 matches
- At home
SK Sturm Graz
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Austria Vienna
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- SK Sturm Graz
- SK Sturm Graz1-1Austria Vienna
- Austria Vienna2-5SK Sturm Graz
- Austria Vienna3-1SK Sturm Graz
- SK Sturm Graz0-1Austria Vienna
- SK Sturm Graz0-1Austria Vienna
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Austria Vienna – SK Sturm Graz?
Our model gives 2 · SK Sturm Graz a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Austria Vienna win 25 %, draw 30 %, SK Sturm Graz win 45 %.
What is the most likely score for Austria Vienna – SK Sturm Graz?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.