Arezzo
Cremonese
Arezzo – Cremonese
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 36 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.24 – 1.24
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Arezzo at home (36 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.24 goals for Arezzo and 1.24 for Cremonese. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 31 %. Over their last five matches, Arezzo took 6 points and Cremonese 8 points. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arezzo | 3.05 | 31 % | +9.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.05 | 31 % | -7.8 % |
| 2Cremonese | 2.40 | 39 % | -18.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Arezzo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Cremonese
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Arezzo – Cremonese?
Our model gives 1 · Arezzo a 36 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Arezzo win 36 %, draw 30 %, Cremonese win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for Arezzo – Cremonese?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.