Maritimo
FC Porto
Maritimo – FC Porto
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 66 %
- Most likely score
- 0-212 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.85 – 2.04
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards FC Porto away from home (66 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.85 goals for Maritimo and 2.04 for FC Porto. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 71 %. Over their last five matches, Maritimo took 2 points and FC Porto 12 points. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Maritimo | 8.75 | 11 % | +20.8 % |
| XDraw | 5.13 | 18 % | +5.8 % |
| 2FC Porto | 1.30 | 71 % | -14.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Maritimo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
FC Porto
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Maritimo – FC Porto?
Our model gives 2 · FC Porto a 66 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Maritimo win 14 %, draw 21 %, FC Porto win 66 %.
What is the most likely score for Maritimo – FC Porto?
The most likely score is 0-2, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.