Feyenoord Rotterdam
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord Rotterdam – AZ Alkmaar
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.02 – 1.43
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67 %
- Both teams to score
- 66 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Feyenoord Rotterdam at home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.02 goals for Feyenoord Rotterdam and 1.43 for AZ Alkmaar. Bookmakers say the same thing: 52 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Feyenoord Rotterdam took 10 points and AZ Alkmaar 10 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Feyenoord Rotterdam, 2 draws, 0 wins for AZ Alkmaar. Over 2.5 goals: 67 %. Both teams to score: 66 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1.80 | 52 % | -10.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | -8.8 % |
| 2AZ Alkmaar | 4.00 | 23 % | +5.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Feyenoord Rotterdam
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AZ Alkmaar
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Feyenoord Rotterdam
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- AZ Alkmaar
- Feyenoord Rotterdam1-1AZ Alkmaar
- AZ Alkmaar3-3Feyenoord Rotterdam
- AZ Alkmaar0-1Feyenoord Rotterdam
- Feyenoord Rotterdam3-2AZ Alkmaar
- Feyenoord Rotterdam2-0AZ Alkmaar
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Feyenoord Rotterdam – AZ Alkmaar?
Our model gives 1 · Feyenoord Rotterdam a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Feyenoord Rotterdam win 50 %, draw 24 %, AZ Alkmaar win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Feyenoord Rotterdam – AZ Alkmaar?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.