Asteras Tripoli
Atromitos
Asteras Tripoli – Atromitos
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.28 – 1.31
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atromitos away from home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.28 goals for Asteras Tripoli and 1.31 for Atromitos. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 30 %. Over their last five matches, Asteras Tripoli took 2 points and Atromitos 2 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Asteras Tripoli, 0 draws, 3 wins for Atromitos. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Asteras Tripoli | 2.30 | 40 % | -19.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 29 % | -11.7 % |
| 2Atromitos | 3.05 | 30 % | +12.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Asteras Tripoli
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atromitos
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Asteras Tripoli
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Atromitos
- Asteras Tripoli4-2Atromitos
- Atromitos2-1Asteras Tripoli
- Asteras Tripoli1-2Atromitos
- Atromitos0-1Asteras Tripoli
- Asteras Tripoli1-4Atromitos
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Asteras Tripoli – Atromitos?
Our model gives 2 · Atromitos a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Asteras Tripoli win 35 %, draw 28 %, Atromitos win 37 %.
What is the most likely score for Asteras Tripoli – Atromitos?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.