Barcelona
Getafe
Barcelona – Getafe
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 87 %
- Most likely score
- 3-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 3.30 – 0.62
- Over 2.5 goals
- 75 %
- Both teams to score
- 45 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Barcelona at home (87 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.30 goals for Barcelona and 0.62 for Getafe. Bookmakers say the same thing: 89 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Barcelona took 15 points and Getafe 5 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Barcelona, 1 draw, 0 wins for Getafe. Over 2.5 goals: 75 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona | 1.08 | 89 % | -5.8 % |
| XDraw | 14.00 | 7 % | +29.8 % |
| 2Getafe | 21.00 | 5 % | -27.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Barcelona
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Getafe
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Barcelona
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Getafe
- Getafe0-2Barcelona
- Barcelona3-0Getafe
- Getafe1-1Barcelona
- Barcelona1-0Getafe
- Barcelona4-0Getafe
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Barcelona – Getafe?
Our model gives 1 · Barcelona a 87 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Barcelona win 87 %, draw 9 %, Getafe win 3 %.
What is the most likely score for Barcelona – Getafe?
The most likely score is 3-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.