Mjällby AIF
Degerfors IF
Mjällby AIF – Degerfors IF
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.45 – 1.14
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Mjällby AIF at home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.45 goals for Mjällby AIF and 1.14 for Degerfors IF. Bookmakers say the same thing: 50 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Mjällby AIF took 2 points and Degerfors IF 3 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Mjällby AIF, 0 draws, 0 wins for Degerfors IF. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mjällby AIF | 1.86 | 50 % | -14.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -4.2 % |
| 2Degerfors IF | 3.90 | 24 % | +5.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Mjällby AIF
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Degerfors IF
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Mjällby AIF
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Degerfors IF
- Degerfors IF1-4Mjällby AIF
- Degerfors IF0-1Mjällby AIF
- Mjällby AIF4-1Degerfors IF
- Degerfors IF1-2Mjällby AIF
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mjällby AIF – Degerfors IF?
Our model gives 1 · Mjällby AIF a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mjällby AIF win 46 %, draw 27 %, Degerfors IF win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Mjällby AIF – Degerfors IF?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.