Go Ahead Eagles
Sparta Rotterdam
Go Ahead Eagles – Sparta Rotterdam
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 55 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.01 – 1.25
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Go Ahead Eagles at home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.01 goals for Go Ahead Eagles and 1.25 for Sparta Rotterdam. Bookmakers say the same thing: 54 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Go Ahead Eagles took 6 points and Sparta Rotterdam 2 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Go Ahead Eagles, 2 draws, 1 win for Sparta Rotterdam. Over 2.5 goals: 63 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Go Ahead Eagles | 1.74 | 54 % | -4.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | -10.4 % |
| 2Sparta Rotterdam | 4.20 | 22 % | -5.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Go Ahead Eagles
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sparta Rotterdam
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Go Ahead Eagles
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Sparta Rotterdam
- Sparta Rotterdam2-2Go Ahead Eagles
- Go Ahead Eagles0-3Sparta Rotterdam
- Go Ahead Eagles1-0Sparta Rotterdam
- Sparta Rotterdam1-1Go Ahead Eagles
- Sparta Rotterdam1-2Go Ahead Eagles
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Go Ahead Eagles – Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model gives 1 · Go Ahead Eagles a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Go Ahead Eagles win 55 %, draw 23 %, Sparta Rotterdam win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for Go Ahead Eagles – Sparta Rotterdam?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.