Casa Pia
Santa Clara
Casa Pia – Santa Clara
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 55 %
- Most likely score
- 0-113 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.87 – 1.59
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Santa Clara away from home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.87 goals for Casa Pia and 1.59 for Santa Clara. Bookmakers say the same thing: 51 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Casa Pia took 4 points and Santa Clara 11 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Casa Pia, 1 draw, 3 wins for Santa Clara. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Casa Pia | 4.45 | 21 % | -16.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -14.6 % |
| 2Santa Clara | 1.82 | 51 % | +0.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Casa Pia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Santa Clara
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Casa Pia
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Santa Clara
- Casa Pia0-0Santa Clara
- Santa Clara1-0Casa Pia
- Santa Clara2-1Casa Pia
- Casa Pia0-2Santa Clara
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Casa Pia – Santa Clara?
Our model gives 2 · Santa Clara a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Casa Pia win 19 %, draw 26 %, Santa Clara win 55 %.
What is the most likely score for Casa Pia – Santa Clara?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.