Alavés
Atlético Madrid
Alavés – Atlético Madrid
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.19 – 1.49
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atlético Madrid away from home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.19 goals for Alavés and 1.49 for Atlético Madrid. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 52 %. Over their last five matches, Alavés took 7 points and Atlético Madrid 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Alavés, 2 draws, 2 wins for Atlético Madrid. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Alavés | 4.20 | 23 % | +26.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | +1.2 % |
| 2Atlético Madrid | 1.83 | 52 % | -21.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Alavés
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atlético Madrid
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Alavés
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid1-0Alavés
- Alavés1-1Atlético Madrid
- Alavés0-0Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid2-1Alavés
- Alavés2-0Atlético Madrid
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Alavés – Atlético Madrid?
Our model gives 2 · Atlético Madrid a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Alavés win 30 %, draw 27 %, Atlético Madrid win 43 %.
What is the most likely score for Alavés – Atlético Madrid?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.