Ceuta
CD Sabadell
Ceuta – CD Sabadell
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 36 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.17 – 1.14
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Ceuta at home (36 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.17 goals for Ceuta and 1.14 for CD Sabadell. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 30 %. Over their last five matches, Ceuta took 5 points and CD Sabadell 8 points. Over 2.5 goals: 41 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ceuta | 3.15 | 30 % | +12.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | +2.6 % |
| 2CD Sabadell | 2.20 | 42 % | -26.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Ceuta
- Last 5 matches
- At home
CD Sabadell
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Ceuta – CD Sabadell?
Our model gives 1 · Ceuta a 36 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ceuta win 36 %, draw 31 %, CD Sabadell win 33 %.
What is the most likely score for Ceuta – CD Sabadell?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.