Heart of Midlothian
St Mirren
Heart of Midlothian – St Mirren
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 65 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.99 – 0.91
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Heart of Midlothian at home (65 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 1.99 goals for Heart of Midlothian and 0.91 for St Mirren. Bookmakers say the same thing: 66 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Heart of Midlothian took 10 points and St Mirren 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Heart of Midlothian, 2 draws, 1 win for St Mirren. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Heart of Midlothian | 1.42 | 66 % | -8.6 % |
| XDraw | 5.03 | 19 % | +2.7 % |
| 2St Mirren | 6.00 | 16 % | -10.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Heart of Midlothian
- Last 5 matches
- At home
St Mirren
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Heart of Midlothian
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- St Mirren
- St Mirren1-0Heart of Midlothian
- Heart of Midlothian2-0St Mirren
- St Mirren2-2Heart of Midlothian
- Heart of Midlothian3-1St Mirren
- St Mirren1-1Heart of Midlothian
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Heart of Midlothian – St Mirren?
Our model gives 1 · Heart of Midlothian a 65 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Heart of Midlothian win 65 %, draw 20 %, St Mirren win 15 %.
What is the most likely score for Heart of Midlothian – St Mirren?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.