Watford
Burnley
Watford – Burnley
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 35 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.25 – 1.30
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Watford 0-4 Burnley. The model predicted a win for Burnley (35 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.25 goals for Watford and 1.30 for Burnley. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Watford took 3 points and Burnley 3 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Watford, 0 draws, 2 wins for Burnley. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Watford | 2.85 | 33 % | -1.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | +4.9 % |
| 2Burnley | 2.38 | 40 % | -16.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Watford
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Burnley
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Watford
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Burnley
- Watford1-2Burnley
- Burnley2-1Watford
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Watford – Burnley?
Final score: Watford 0-4 Burnley. The model predicted a win for Burnley (35 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Watford – Burnley?
Our model gives 2 · Burnley a 35 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Watford win 35 %, draw 30 %, Burnley win 35 %.