Middlesbrough
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Middlesbrough – Wolverhampton Wanderers
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.72 – 1.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Middlesbrough at home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.72 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.03 for Wolverhampton Wanderers. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 43 %. Over their last five matches, Middlesbrough took 8 points and Wolverhampton Wanderers 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Middlesbrough | 2.20 | 43 % | +10.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 25 % | -5.8 % |
| 2Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.92 | 32 % | -28.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Middlesbrough
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Middlesbrough – Wolverhampton Wanderers?
Our model gives 1 · Middlesbrough a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Middlesbrough win 50 %, draw 25 %, Wolverhampton Wanderers win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Middlesbrough – Wolverhampton Wanderers?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.