Derby County
Wrexham
Derby County – Wrexham
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.23 – 1.27
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Derby County 1-1 Wrexham. The model predicted a win for Wrexham (37 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.23 goals for Derby County and 1.27 for Wrexham. Bookmakers say the same thing: 39 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Derby County took 4 points and Wrexham 8 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Derby County, 1 draw, 1 win for Wrexham. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Derby County | 2.95 | 32 % | +4.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 29 % | -7.7 % |
| 2Wrexham | 2.39 | 39 % | -12.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Derby County
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Wrexham
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Derby County
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Wrexham
- Derby County1-2Wrexham
- Wrexham1-1Derby County
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Derby County – Wrexham?
Final score: Derby County 1-1 Wrexham. The model predicted a win for Wrexham (37 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Derby County – Wrexham?
Our model gives 2 · Wrexham a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Derby County win 35 %, draw 28 %, Wrexham win 37 %.