Sunderland
Brighton & Hove Albion
Sunderland – Brighton & Hove Albion
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 55 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.08 – 1.77
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Brighton & Hove Albion away from home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.08 goals for Sunderland and 1.77 for Brighton & Hove Albion. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 41 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.30, the predicted outcome carries +26.1 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Sunderland took 7 points and Brighton & Hove Albion 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Sunderland, 1 draw, 1 win for Brighton & Hove Albion. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sunderland | 3.02 | 32 % | -35.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.52 | 27 % | -15.7 % |
| 2Brighton & Hove Albion | 2.30 |
Form and statistics
Sunderland
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Brighton & Hove Albion
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Sunderland
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Brighton & Hove Albion
- Sunderland0-1Brighton & Hove Albion
- Brighton & Hove Albion0-0Sunderland
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sunderland – Brighton & Hove Albion?
Our model gives 2 · Brighton & Hove Albion a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sunderland win 21 %, draw 24 %, Brighton & Hove Albion win 55 %.
What is the most likely score for Sunderland – Brighton & Hove Albion?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.