Chelsea
AFC Bournemouth
Chelsea – AFC Bournemouth
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.47 – 1.43
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Chelsea 5-1 AFC Bournemouth. The model predicted a win for Chelsea (39 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.47 goals for Chelsea and 1.43 for AFC Bournemouth. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 56 %. Over their last five matches, Chelsea took 7 points and AFC Bournemouth 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Chelsea, 3 draws, 0 wins for AFC Bournemouth. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chelsea | 1.71 | 56 % | -33.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.27 | 22 % | +13.1 % |
| 2AFC Bournemouth | 4.42 | 22 % | +50.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Chelsea
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AFC Bournemouth
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Chelsea
- 3 draws
- 0 wins
- AFC Bournemouth
- Chelsea2-2AFC Bournemouth
- AFC Bournemouth0-0Chelsea
- Chelsea2-2AFC Bournemouth
- AFC Bournemouth0-1Chelsea
- Chelsea2-1AFC Bournemouth
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Chelsea – AFC Bournemouth?
Final score: Chelsea 5-1 AFC Bournemouth. The model predicted a win for Chelsea (39 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Chelsea – AFC Bournemouth?
Our model gives 1 · Chelsea a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Chelsea win 39 %, draw 27 %, AFC Bournemouth win 34 %.