Aston Villa
Brentford
Aston Villa – Brentford
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.56 – 1.41
The short version
Final score: Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford. The model predicted a win for Aston Villa (43 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.56 goals for Aston Villa and 1.41 for Brentford. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 35 %. Over their last five matches, Aston Villa took 10 points and Brentford 9 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Aston Villa, 1 draw, 2 wins for Brentford. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aston Villa | 2.70 | 35 % | +15.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.52 | 27 % | -10.2 % |
| 2Brentford | 2.52 | 38 % | -19.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Aston Villa
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Brentford
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Aston Villa
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Brentford
- Aston Villa0-1Brentford
- Brentford1-1Aston Villa
- Brentford1-0Aston Villa
- Brentford0-1Aston Villa
- Aston Villa3-1Brentford
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Aston Villa – Brentford?
Final score: Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford. The model predicted a win for Aston Villa (43 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Aston Villa – Brentford?
Our model gives 1 · Aston Villa a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Aston Villa win 43 %, draw 25 %, Brentford win 32 %.