TSG Hoffenheim
Hamburg SV
TSG Hoffenheim – Hamburg SV
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 10, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 59 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.10 – 1.04
The short version
Final score: TSG Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburg SV. The model predicted a win for TSG Hoffenheim (59 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.10 goals for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.04 for Hamburg SV. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 67 %. Over their last five matches, TSG Hoffenheim took 3 points and Hamburg SV 6 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for TSG Hoffenheim, 0 draws, 0 wins for Hamburg SV. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1TSG Hoffenheim | 1.42 | 67 % | -15.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.75 | 20 % | +8.6 % |
| 2Hamburg SV | 7.00 | 14 % | +25.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
TSG Hoffenheim
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Hamburg SV
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- TSG Hoffenheim
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Hamburg SV
- Hamburg SV1-2TSG Hoffenheim
- TSG Hoffenheim4-1Hamburg SV
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of TSG Hoffenheim – Hamburg SV?
Final score: TSG Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburg SV. The model predicted a win for TSG Hoffenheim (59 %): missed prediction.
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim – Hamburg SV?
Our model gives 1 · TSG Hoffenheim a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: TSG Hoffenheim win 59 %, draw 23 %, Hamburg SV win 18 %.