Mainz
Bayer Leverkusen
Mainz – Bayer Leverkusen
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.45 – 1.91
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65 %
- Both teams to score
- 65 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Bayer Leverkusen away from home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.45 goals for Mainz and 1.91 for Bayer Leverkusen. Bookmakers say the same thing: 43 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Mainz took 10 points and Bayer Leverkusen 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Mainz, 2 draws, 3 wins for Bayer Leverkusen. Over 2.5 goals: 65 %. Both teams to score: 65 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mainz | 2.95 | 32 % | -16.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.77 | 25 % | -4.4 % |
| 2Bayer Leverkusen | 2.17 | 43 % | +1.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Mainz
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bayer Leverkusen
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Mainz
- 2 draws
- 3 wins
- Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen1-1Mainz
- Mainz3-4Bayer Leverkusen
- Mainz2-2Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen1-0Mainz
- Bayer Leverkusen2-1Mainz
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mainz – Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model gives 2 · Bayer Leverkusen a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mainz win 28 %, draw 25 %, Bayer Leverkusen win 46 %.
What is the most likely score for Mainz – Bayer Leverkusen?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.