FC Augsburg
Bayern Munich
FC Augsburg – Bayern Munich
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 81 %
- Most likely score
- 0-39 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.90 – 3.66
- Over 2.5 goals
- 83 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Bayern Munich away from home (81 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-3. It expects 0.90 goals for FC Augsburg and 3.66 for Bayern Munich. Bookmakers say the same thing: 80 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, FC Augsburg took 10 points and Bayern Munich 13 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for FC Augsburg, 0 draws, 4 wins for Bayern Munich. Over 2.5 goals: 83 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Augsburg | 10.25 | 9 % | -15.6 % |
| XDraw | 8.25 | 11 % | -9.6 % |
| 2Bayern Munich | 1.18 | 80 % | -5.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
FC Augsburg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bayern Munich
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- FC Augsburg
- 0 draws
- 4 wins
- Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich1-2FC Augsburg
- FC Augsburg2-3Bayern Munich
- FC Augsburg1-3Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich3-0FC Augsburg
- FC Augsburg2-3Bayern Munich
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Augsburg – Bayern Munich?
Our model gives 2 · Bayern Munich a 81 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Augsburg win 8 %, draw 11 %, Bayern Munich win 81 %.
What is the most likely score for FC Augsburg – Bayern Munich?
The most likely score is 0-3, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.