GAIS
IK Sirius
GAIS – IK Sirius
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.54 – 1.41
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards GAIS at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.54 goals for GAIS and 1.41 for IK Sirius. Bookmakers say the same thing: 38 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, GAIS took 7 points and IK Sirius 9 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for GAIS, 0 draws, 3 wins for IK Sirius. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1GAIS | 2.45 | 38 % | -3.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -15.5 % |
| 2IK Sirius | 2.75 | 34 % | -2.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
GAIS
- Last 5 matches
- At home
IK Sirius
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- GAIS
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- IK Sirius
- IK Sirius2-1GAIS
- IK Sirius3-0GAIS
- GAIS2-1IK Sirius
- GAIS2-1IK Sirius
- IK Sirius3-1GAIS
Frequently asked questions
Who will win GAIS – IK Sirius?
Our model gives 1 · GAIS a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: GAIS win 40 %, draw 25 %, IK Sirius win 36 %.
What is the most likely score for GAIS – IK Sirius?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.